Explaining Child Death in Bangladesh through the Probability Model

Abstract

Child mortality has gained importance, particularly because death rates during the first five years of life are perpetually high in all countries, regardless of whether overall mortality rates are high or low. In order to meet the second target of the third sustainable development goal by 2030, child mortality in Bangladesh must be reduced. For this purpose, the study aimed to develop a suitable probability model for the number of child deaths among women for a fixed parity. The model is developed for analyzing the risk of child death and to use it for comparing such risk of death. The present study utilizes data from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-18. The parameter of the suitable probability model is estimated by method of moments and maximum likelihood method. The result shows that the average risk of child death (p) varies from women to women with parity (p=0.099 for parity 4, p=0.129 for parity 5, p=0.139 for parity 6). It is expected that the study will be helpful for researchers who are interested to work in the field of child mortality which will helpful for policy decision.