Climate Variability and Its Impact on Agricultural Productivity in Moradabad District, Uttar Pradesh (1990–2024)

Abstract

Climate variability poses a serious threat to agricultural productivity in India, particularly in climate-sensitive regions such as western Uttar Pradesh. Understanding long-term changes in rainfall and temperature and their impacts on crop yields is essential for designing climate-resilient agricultural strategies. This study analyzes trends in rainfall and temperature from 1990 to 2024 and quantifies their impact on the productivity of major crops such as wheat, rice and sugarcane—in Moradabad district. Secondary data on annual rainfall and temperature were obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), while crop yield data were collected from the Department of Agriculture, Government of Uttar Pradesh. Descriptive statistics, trend analysis, correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression models were employed. Results reveal a statistically significant increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures, accompanied by increasing rainfall variability. Regression results indicate that rising temperatures negatively affect wheat and rice yields, while sugarcane shows relative resilience to rainfall variability. The study highlights crop-specific climate sensitivity and underscores the urgency of climate-resilient agricultural planning at the district level.