Bioclimatic modeling of the species Phlomoides canescens (Lamiaceae)

Abstract

The article analyzes the natural distribution area of the species Phlomoides canescens (Regel) Adylov, Kamelin and Makhmedov using the programs of type MaxEnt and ArcGis, the widespread of Central Asia (past, future). A methodological algorithm of bioclimatic modeling was developed. According to the results of the study, it is proved that the main distribution of the species coincides with the boundaries of the area Pomir-Alay mountain system (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) as well as northern Afghanistan. Is noted that the climatic and topographic factors that are optimal for the species are the precipitation of the coldest quarter and elevation. According to the RCP 2.6 (2061-2080) climate scenario, an increase in temperature of 0.4 to 1.6°C will create many potentially suitable areas in the form of fragments in the regions of Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Under the RCP8.5_2070s climate scenario, an increase in temperature of 1.4 to 2.6°C has replaced scattered high-level suitable areas with medium-level suitable areas. Under both climate scenarios, temperature increases of 0.4–1.6°C and 1.4–2.6°C did not adversely affect the species’ main hotspots. Ecological features of the species and modeling results allow to creation of natural plantations in the foothills of Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya (Hisor Range) and Jizzakh (Turkestan Range) regions. This makes it possible to provide a sufficient amount of biomass for the development of drugs from the plant in the field of pharmaceuticals.